The weekly review...

By the end of each week, I post a comment about a financial topic. The views which are reflected in this blog are mine and they are not supposed to constitute financial advices. Do what you think is good for yourself. Build your knowledge, and take advice where necessary.

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You will never have enough education. Here I share my views of the financial market in general, and from time to time, how to profit from it.

If you like these articles, make sure you read Out of the Rat Race, the book as you will find many eye opening facts and stories which I gathered over 25 years of learning.

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2020 Jan 19

This is the third and last part of my trilogy on the new mindset for the new decade. After the totally new approach of goal setting, the search for our deep values, we are entering the last part. Simple in concept, but not always easy to master, the third part is this: focus on building good habits and delivering good execution!

2020 Jan 11

Hello my Friend! It's only week 2 of the year, and the decade is going to feel like a succession of marathons... Therefore, for your own sake: clear your mind! πŸ˜‡

Clarity is essential. Clarity of thoughts, clarity of goals, and clarity of purpose. Without this, you walk like a one-legged duck πŸ¦†. And I can tell you this, it's not pretty!! So if you thought I was done with the new year's reboot and Change Program, you are in for a surprise. Not only I am not finished, but I have prepared some work activity for you. Yes, this week, you have to go beyond the reading and start working to discover our own Clear Self, the one who will cut through the upcoming decade on two legs and two brains...

2020 Jan 04

The King of US has just bombed the highest military commander of Iran, and I will not even start commenting... We are post new year's resolutions, and the new Me is in full control!

I hope you enjoyed the year-end break and you are refreshed and ready for the new decade. As for me, I just got lots of time to read and think... This has led me to the most profound and possibly life changing resolutions ever, as the usual top three resolutions of the year landed in the bin!

Yes, the new Me has decided to drive a big Change Program...

2019 Dec 28

Dear Trader,

I hope you enjoyed my support and rants this past year. As we are bang in the middle of the Christmas break, I will leave you with an unusually short message.

Like it or not, you are a trader. You dont' believe me? Continue reading...

2019 Dec 21

Ahhh, this is so annoying!!! Yes, two weeks ago I wrote that it's time to get 100% positive, and get the uplift as the Fed is pumping the financial assets in the US, with worldwide repercussions. Yes, it's party time again, a party like this one we got at the turn of the Millenium. Party! Party! Everybody is joining, and as a company got even valued $2 trillion last week, why would you stay on the side? Party! Party! 100% positive!

2019 Dec 14

So much is happening this week, it's hard to pick the most influential of these events... With Brexit on the way to being done as fast as New Blue England can command the rest of the UK... With the US/Chinese apparently finally agreeing on stage one of "The Deal" (whatever it is, nobody really knows yet)... With the Fed now admitting pumping half a trillion USD in what they call "repo" (giving cash to the friendly banks)... And with the Climate Change / save the planet week... What is the biggest event that will define the next decade? I chose none of these. Let me tell you how a company sold 1.5% of its shares this past week.

2019 Dec 07

This time I got it wrong. I bet against Mr Market and the Fed. It's never a good idea to bet against these monsters... I am probably not the only one who got it wrong, but nevertheless... it pisses me off! All signals except one or two are saying that a recession is coming, and that it's time to go risk-off. But the remaining one or two are stubborn and powerful. They have all the money in the world: they print it! So what's next? I'm going to open the crystal ball up to end 2020...

2019 Nov 30

As we know, commercial banks are in the business of issuing promises. These promises are nothing else than debt (your debt to the bank) in exchange of a contribution towards your home purchase. Your debt is then immediately recycled into the economy as the previous owners receive real money in exchange of selling their home. They pay their own debt, tax, fees, and the rest becomes real money which got created by this ingenious system (and the invisible man πŸ˜‰). Now, with each year going by, this business model is looking more and more dated and past century than ever.

What does this mean for us?

2019 Nov 23

With QE and the race to the bottom, there is so much money all around us, that it looks like it is worth nothing. Well, to be exact, in some quarters it is worth nothing, in others it is still costly. One would expect that after the 2008-2018 Greek debacle, at a time when the country had to pay up to 37% interest to borrow money, it would still be very costly for Greece to raise money in 2019. Mind you, they have been in austerity mode for a decade and still have debt repayment scheduled until 2060. And who knows if they will not default a few more times before? Well well, the world has changed: Greece is a safe bet! Time to assess if I am safe too...

2019 Nov 16

As its name badly indicates, the S&P 500 Energy index contains... not 500 but 28 companies. Still, you find in there the largest US listed companies providing energy to more than 300 million people, such as Chevron, Exxon Mobil, and another 26 peers. Why bother you ask? Well, this week, one company alone got worth more than the entire energy sector in the US. This company is called Apple.

2019 Nov 10

In the past week, my total running distance since 1st January this year reached 4 digits. As a consequence, my third and last main goal for 2019 got ticked. It’s important to set goals. It helps keep you on track and motivated. Although it is a bit early for end-of-year goal setting, there is never a bad moment to review and improve the process. Here we go!

2019 Nov 02

During this last month, I talked about the failed IPO of We Work. Well, this week, their founder-CEO got politely asked to leave the company. As SoftBank, the private investment fund who put in Β£10b into We Work, was adamant they wanted to take back control, they removed the ex-CEO from the board and took all his voting rights. Well, this removal of rights happened to be in exchange of a departure fee... of $1.7b πŸ€‘. In the corporate world, that is called a parachute... Time for us all to assess if we have any in case of a freefall...

2019 Oct 27

You do not need to trade to take an interest in this. Let me tell you that this battle for avoiding the upcoming recession will have repercussions into your daily lives for the next decade. If the Central Banks and powerful Kings-aka-Governments win, there will be asset inflation for years to come making the rich richer and the middle class will have the priviledge of having job security in exchange of not being able to afford the cost of living (mostly the cost of buying a home). If they loose... there will be asset deflation for at least a couple of years making everybody poorer, except the 0.01% few. In any case, the game is rigged, but in any case... you are in the game, so everyday, you have to play your hand.

2019 Oct 19

Brexit got delayed again today, for what seems to be the 1000th time... As a Frenchman having made my home and life in the UK (nearly 20 years now), one would think I would be pro-Europe. In principle, I am. Had I been allowed to vote, I would have voted remain. But as we can see, politics are more and more un-principled. Bloody hell, get done with it and sign this Brexit divorce now!

2019 Oct 12

Looks like one trillion dollar does not buy much these days. I am not talking about Zimbabwe dollars, but King of all currencies, the USD. Yes, this is another inflation, deflation and manipulation story. But how could it be different? The Fed just announced a $60b per month repurchase program. That level of money printing would pay the Brexit divorce bill in 2 weeks... For the first time, I am going to start using emojis... 🀦

2019 Oct 05

This week is about property. With asset inflation to infinity and beyond, nobody seems to have enough capital to buy anything anymore. We do not buy cars anymore (check on the car industry to get a flavour) but we take a Uber when needed. We Pay as we Go and we "Whatever" as a Service. To give an example, I recently saw a new one: "Brain as a Service". Oh well... why not! So it's probably logical that the new landlords of the 21st Century do not buy properties. Instead, they rent them to sublet them at a profit. And there is even a fancy name for this: Rent to Rent!

2019 Sept 28

With so much big news this week (process of impeachment in the US, the Supreme Court ruling the U.K. government acted unlawfully, Thomas getting cooked...), I was very unsure what this weekly review should be about. Until I dug further... I'm sure you have heard about We Work (who has not?). Well, their IPO attempt failed. No big deal you may think. I thought this too. Until I dug under the carpet... Oh there's a potential time bomb here!

2019 Sept 21

I learned two new concepts this week. The first one: we are in an earning recession, which means that the average of the most powerful public US companies (SPX again!) have seen their profit go down for two quarters in a row. The second one: the FED mandate, which until now was known to be "to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long term interest rates" seems to have wobbled. The FED did lower the interest rates (by 0.25%) this week, announcing that it did so because of the big companies earning recession... Hello???

2019 Sept 14

This week, the European Central Bank lowered its interest rate. Again... From previously -0.4% to now -0.5%. Those on a variable mortgage indexed on Euribor are having a laugh and a free mortgage... What more? The ECB also gave guidance that until probably at least mid-2020, the rates will stay the same or be lower... Meanwhile, the King of USA is wondering why the FED does not compete on this race to the bottom...

2019 Sept 07

This past week was everything about invalidation of risky events. No deal Brexit? Invalidated... Italians having to go back to the polling stations and elect a new far right government? Well, invalidated too... Chinese trade war? Invalidated, at least for now... SPX going down the hole. Yes you guessed it. Another one which got invalidated!

2019 Aug 31

A little friend called Silver is sending us warning signs. It only does this when feeling distressed about the world economy and the risk of either conflict, recession, downturn, or other gremlins... So when it sends its signal, you have to listen...

2019 Aug 24

One one side, you have the powerful Central Bankers who print money like there is no future consequence. In 8 years at the head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi never ever raised interest rates, having for consequence the abnormal 30 years german bond paying negative 0.11%. Yes, you have to pay the German state to lend them money over 30 years. Or the negative mortgage in Denmark as we saw recently. On another side, you have the powerful Kings of their competing empires...

2019 Aug 16

A bank in Denmark is offering negative rate mortgages. What does it mean? You take up a 10 year fix rate mortgage with them, and they pay you 0.5% per year for the privilege of asking them money. They also have in store a 20 years mortgage for 0% interest. Yes, free money over 20 years...